From Heydar to Ilham: Russia, Azerbaijan and regional security

The day before in Moscow took place to a meeting of Russian Presidents and Azerbaijan Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. It became the first after re-election of both heads of states, and passed against the background of extremely unfriendly steps of the leadership of Armenia in relation to integration structures of the Russian Federation on Post-Soviet space.

Details - in material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

Prior to this visit Aliyev was in the Russian Federation about a year ago - during tripartite negotiations on settlement of crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. Now the meeting had one more important background - a few days ago the Russian Federation in coordination with Baku removed the peacekeeping contingent from the territory of Karabakh.

It was placed on the former line of contact of military of the unrecognized republic and Azerbaijan along the Lachin corridor. The Russian peacekeepers appeared there after at an intermediary role of the Russian Federation it was succeeded to achieve ceasefire with the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

It was supposed that the mission will last till fall of the 2025th, however half a year ago Vladimir Putin noted that "the situation changed radically". As Armenia recognized Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan, and negotiations on a conclusion of peacekeepers were conducted with Baku. However, it did not prevent the present Armenian authorities to present headed by the prime minister Nicol Pashinyanam withdrawal of troops as next "treachery" from the ally on the CSTO.

In the last days of the CSTO is exposed to sharp criticism from Pashinyan's administration. That in every way lets know, first of all, to the western governments that drift of Armenia towards the West from the Russian Federation is not situational, and is the new national strategy of the country. In response to words about the reasons of rapprochement with the West Pashinyan answered that Armenia was never far from it.

Probably, they became especially close after a coup d'etat of 2018 in Yerevan which built Pashinyana to tops of the power.

Its administration initiated the whole series of publications in the European and American press where speaks why Armenia was disappointed in the CSTO. Among other things, there it is claimed that the organization (first of all, Russia meant) refused performance of obligations on protection of Armenia against Azerbaijan.

Only there forgot to add that Yerevan itself recognized Karabakh as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan, and the CSTO can react only in case of threats for the international and recognized national territory. But to the western information user it is the nobility not obligatory.

If to speak about 2023 when the Karabakh question was finally closed, the strategy of retraction of the Russian Federation in the armed opposition on two fronts prevailed. In the period of SVO the idea according to which the Russian Federation as a result of provocations against the peacekeepers will be forced to throw a part of the military resources from Ukrainian on the Armenian direction was too tempting. This strategy completely failed.

Aliyev's visit to Moscow puts an end in this question - "the second the front" will not be. At the same time the parties understand the responsibility for ensuring regional security. Formally this subject was not "illuminated", but it is obvious that this question was paramount in dialogue of two leaders.

Important moment: Baku and Yerevan practically agreed about demarcation of border which after completion of all procedures will be protected by the Azerbaijani and Armenian frontier guards without participation of Russians. Since August 1 the Russian frontier guards will stop serving at the Yerevan airport Zvartnots). One of these days the question of withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base from Gyumri and possible integration of Armenia into Euro-Atlantic structures of safety can be raised.

Against the background of these events Russia seeks to keep influence in Transcaucasia - especially after agreements of Yerevan and Paris on deliveries of military equipment to Armenia. It is obvious that for Emmanuel Macron rapprochement with this Post-Soviet country - including, attempt to settle accounts with the Russian Federation for expression of the French from Africa. But long-term interests and strategy in this region France has also no forces for its carrying out in life.

In this sense also we designate more assets of the USA which literally flooded Armenia with the agents to NPO. It works. However, there are also costs: after defeat of their country in 2020 the protesters in Yerevan first of all demolished office of the local sorosovsky organization.

From BAM to North-South

Returning to the meeting between Aliyev and Putin, one of the main topics was the 50th anniversary of the construction of the Baikal-Amur Railway (BAM). Today, the Russian Federation is actively developing the so-called. "Eastern landfill," including the expansion of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway. Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev met with BAM veterans, and not at all by chance. In the 80s, the father of the current head of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, headed the government commission on the USSR, which oversaw this large-scale project.

In the context of this topic, they talked about another, more pressing - the development of the North-South transport corridor. According to Aliyev, the project is of global importance for the safety of cargo transportation and stimulating trade relations between many countries.

11 countries participate in the North-South corridor, including Russia, India and Iran. Its main advantage over the Suez Canal is the reduction of transportation distances by two or more times, as well as a decrease in the cost of transporting containers compared to transportation along the sea route.

North-South Corridor. Photo: https://sun9-42.userapi.com/impg/iMxfMsNwS7Mvhf0bzfeBHjOlR3EfbOnDClo6Rg/2IwTseuImCs.jpg?size=1000x665&quality=95&sign=c431007b136abe0274af051f41e2c2b1&c_uniq_tag=q_SQ2yNwSPrM4b1cOHdKV7VtpkbPA-5g8LSu0egaodg&type=album

For Russia, this is one of the key, if not the main transport and trade artery in Transcaucasia. For its normal functioning, a long-term peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is necessary. Developing relations in this direction, Russia seeks to maintain its geopolitical position in this region, despite the position of Armenia.

At the same time, Azerbaijan is pursuing a nationally oriented policy, which involves rapprochement with Turkey. The balance of interests in Transcaucasia is rapidly changing, but it is too early to write off Moscow as it would like in Yerevan and Western capitals.