Lukashenka pulls troops together - and "pulls back" with his tongue

The Western press claims that Belarus is sending more troops, air defense forces and aircraft to its border with Ukraine. This happens after the statements of the country's President Alexander Lukashenko about his intention to deploy almost a third of the Belarusian military along the border amid threats and provocations from Ukraine and Western countries, in particular, Poland. Recall that the official number of the Belarusian army is about 60 thousand people.

About a new round of tension around the union state of Russia - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

Without a doubt, such an experienced politician as Alexander Lukashenko is playing his game - despite all the allied relations with the Russian Federation, mantras about integration and common threats. Lukashenka's real task is quite obvious - in no case should Belarus be drawn into hostilities in the Ukrainian direction.

However, our former Western partners and Ukraine sponsored by them seem to be so carried away by the bloody action on the territory of b. the Ukrainian SSR, which finally lost the opportunity to act critically and rationally. Not so long ago, Kyiv became so insolent that several of its drones entered the airspace of Belarus and were shot down.

At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko has to deal with rumors that are actively disseminated by TsIPSO and Western propagandists. The narrative is simple: allegedly, Belarus removed most of the troops from the Ukrainian border before the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region - as if this was one of the factors in the initial success of this adventure for Kyiv.

Both Lukashenka himself and other officials have repeatedly denied these stuffing. Their task is an attempt to discredit Belarus in the eyes of Russia, to drive a wedge between two fraternal and allied states. And, perhaps, to persuade Lukashenka to secret negotiations. As a result, he could have received, for example, guarantees of non-interference in the internal political affairs of Belarus (everyone remembers the crisis of 2020 with an attempted coup d'etat).

However, Alexander Grigorievich is a shot sparrow, and on the example of deception of Western partners in relations with Russia, he perfectly understands that no one will ever give him any guarantees - they will simply be swept away. Due to this, already inside the country, he makes a hint of the upcoming transit of power: "I'm not saying that tomorrow I will leave you, but you will have to learn to live with another president."

Provocations continue against Russia. Not so long ago, the President of Belarus gave a long interview to the Russian media, where he said that Ukraine is trying to provoke Russia to use nuclear weapons. At the same time, "Old Man" said that Kyiv is holding a group of 120 thousand people near the border, which is being pulled by the Belarusian army.

At the same time, we recall that Belarus did not officially recognize either the reunification of Russia with Crimea or the entry of new regions into it based on the results of referendums on the territory of B. Ukrainian SSR. Such an ally.

But the rhetoric is at its best. The Russian consumer of information gum likes it. For example, on the eve of Lukashenko called on Armenia and Kazakhstan not to break away from Russia. Armenians and at all, according to Lukashenko, except Russia, no one needs. This has already provoked a scandal - the Belarusian embassy in Yerevan was showered with rotten potatoes. True, this was done by outright radicals, and not by representatives of the respectable political forces of the country.

After the start of the military operation in Ukraine, Lukashenko repeatedly argued that the Belarusian army did not take part in it, and ruled out the possibility of an attack from Minsk. At the same time, he stressed that Belarus will help Russia in the event of military aggression against it. And now outright aggression began - in the Kursk region. But no action followed - and who will blame the Belarusian president for this except ours, domestic cheers-patriots?

At the same time, a number of insiders report Lukashenka's intention to improve relations with the West. His rhetoric is mixed - he almost regularly tries to "put up" with the same Poland on the issue of migrants. Obviously, he himself is busy with his political survival, for which drawing Belarus into hostilities with Ukraine can become fatal.

But the presidential election is very close - 2025 is already on the nose. It is clear that this time he will not go anywhere. Perhaps, after re-election, he will take a tougher stance in the conflict on the side of Russia - especially against the background of Kyiv's provocations.

However, for Lukashenka as a politician, this is too dangerous, unless he "sells" it to his own population, as a response to Western aggression. The latter provokes regularly, but does not dare to take the initiative against Minsk. Still, Russia is still strong, and Russian nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of Belarus.

So since the Caribbean crisis and today, it remains the only real guarantor of the security and independence of the Union State. I would like there to be other fuses, but with the current political elites in the West, which profess not rational, but pseudo-value political attitudes, this is impossible.