Pashinyan breaking bad: Armenia "says goodbye" to the CSTO

Armenia has officially announced its desire to withdraw from the CSTO. Nikol Pashinyan expects that Western allies will defend him. Is Azerbaijan just waiting for this?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia will withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This statement was not unexpected, such plans were previously discussed. However, for the first time this was said directly, publicly.

A loud statement was made against the background of another proof that Yerevan is closely engaged in the diversification of its external relations: on the eve it became known about the increase in Armenian-American relations to the level of strategic partnership.

Prior to that, numerous consultations were held on the possible withdrawal of the country from the organization. The Moscow Post correspondent understood what this threatens Armenia and the entire security system in Transcaucasia.

In his speech, the Armenian prime minister also accused the country's former authorities of joining the CSTO, believing that Azerbaijan would not begin to solve the Karabakh problem by military means, and also that now, according to the prime minister, the existence of Armenia is under threat. "Those who formed the bubble alliance are to blame, whose members, as it turned out, are fulfilling their contractual obligations, but are planning a war against us [together] with Azerbaijan," Pashinyan said.

There is a clear hint of representatives of the so-called. the Karabakh clan that ruled Armenia before the coup in 2018. The latter are in favor of rapprochement with Russia, and stand in the position of Nagorno-Karabakh belonging to Armenia. Having come to power against the backdrop of the coup, Nikol Pashinyan and his team headed for the complete rejection of Karabakh, withdrawal from all integration structures in which Russia plays a leading role, and orientation towards the West - the EU and NATO.

Of course, in his speech, Nikol Pashinyan had in mind the situation with Karabakh, which he himself surrendered to Azerbaijan. Pashinyan propaganda spreads similar narratives in Armenian society. She claims that Russia allegedly did not fulfill its obligations under the CSTO to protect Armenia from an external attack.

Only now there was no attack on Armenia itself, and even Yerevan did not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, from a legal point of view, hostilities were conducted on the territory of Azerbaijan, which is not included in the CSTO. Consequently, any military intervention of the Russian Federation would de facto be an attack on Azerbaijan, would be outside the legal field.

Nikol Pashinyan himself not only pointed out this fact, but also repeatedly emphasized that earlier Armenia recognized Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. He reaffirmed this on the sidelines of the summit of the European Political Community in Granada (Spain) in October 2023, where he signed the corresponding declaration.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly paid attention to this, the fact of recognition of Karabakh for Azerbaijan. What kind of intervention through the CSTO can we talk about then?

In parallel with this, Armenia is being intensively pumped up with weapons and advisers from the West. In September 2023, the teachings of the Armenian and American military were held there - and this is in the condition when the Russian Federation leads SVO. On the territory of Armenia, we recall, the 102nd Russian base in Gyumri remains. Leaving the CSTO is one thing, but Pashinyan does not yet know what to do with the base.

Many of the Pashinyan administration's steps towards Russia are frankly provocative. Their task is to provoke the Russian Federation to take sharp retaliatory steps in order to justify the "drift" to the Armenian society in the opposite direction from Russia.

According to the Ukrainian scenario

However, it is obvious that any security guarantees for Armenia from NATO or individual members of the Alliance, such as France, are not worth the papers on which they are signed. Moreover, there are no such guarantees yet. The notorious "NATO membership in exchange for territories," which they are trying to attribute to Pashinyan, will end only with the seizure of territories. But in the event of a real military threat, Armenia will be left with it almost face to face.

After all, Turkey is also a member of NATO, and the closest ally of Azerbaijan. Nearby is Iran, which is also interested in a stable situation in Armenia. In this tangle of interests, Yerevan can only be a bargaining chip.

Pashinyan's statements took place against the backdrop of mass protests by the Armenians themselves, who disagree with the policy of the country's leadership. Yesterday, protesters demanding the resignation of the prime minister tried to enter parliament, but were stopped by the police. More than 80 people were detained, a criminal case was initiated under the article on organizing mass riots.

The state propaganda of Armenia, at the suggestion of Pashinyan, is trying to convince its own citizens and the international community that Russia is allegedly the real initiator and beneficiary of the protests. Classic shifting from a sore head to a healthy one. The accusations of the CSTO in the current external challenges of Yerevan are from the same series.

Ultimately, Armenia risks being in the position of Ukraine. They will pump her up with weapons, give her some money and throw her on the embrasure. Only in this case we can talk not so much about Russia as about Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran. Thus, this will cause even greater damage to the entire security system in the Transcaucasus, accelerate its imbalance.

As in the case of Ukraine, no one will take into account the real national interests of Yerevan - especially, to fight for it. It seems that Azerbaijan, which still has territorial claims against Armenia, is only waiting for this. And Turkey will definitely stand behind him.

Russia, against the background of unfounded accusations and insults in its direction, retains amazing composure, is in no hurry to break ties with Armenia. Ultimately, the fate of the country is in the hands of the fraternal Armenian people - Russia is guided by it. And judging by the massive protests of recent days, Pashinyan runs the risk of not retaining his post at all until the end of the prime minister's cadence.