Tokayev between Scylla and Charybdis

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan and held talks with his colleague Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Today, the CSTO summit starts in Astana, which will be held in the face of a powerful increase in geopolitical tensions and even the risks of a nuclear war due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the anti-Russian position of Western states.

Kazakhstan is the heart of Central Asia, skillfully balancing between partnership with Russia in the framework of bilateral relations and international organizations, while facing growing pressure from pan-Turkic and pro-Western forces. Against this background, Tokayev's team manages to maintain a balance and receive its own benefit from both the problems and the successes of its northern neighbor.

Details - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

The CSTO is considered by many experts to be a dead organization. Like NATO, it is largely tied to one key player. In the case of the North Atlantic Alliance, this is the United States, with the CSTO, of course, Russia. Although in addition to the latter and Kazakhstan, the defense union includes Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

As for Armenia, this membership used to be rather nominal, but now it has completely turned into a formality. In June 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan bluntly stated that his country would leave the organization. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic added that the United States and the EU are pushing the country to this. Pashinyan himself justifies the need to leave the organization allegedly by the fact that it did not help Armenia during the Karabakh war. However, this is a well-known case: the CSTO did not have the authority to do so, because the territory of Karabakh is the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.

What did Putin's visit to Kazakhstan bring? As stated in the Kremlin, this trip reflects the high level of relations of strategic partnership and alliance between Russia and Kazakhstan. If we return to the context of the CSTO, President Tokayev remembers very well that it was under the auspices of this organization that Russia provided his team with all possible assistance in suppressing the armed riots in early 2022, known as the January events. However, further rapprochement with Russia, especially through the CSTO, threatens Kazakhstan with new geopolitical risks.

The current Kazakhstan managed to find a middle ground - on the one hand, it does not quarrel with the Kremlin, to pursue an adequate good-neighborly economic and cultural policy. On the other hand, to position itself as a neutral force, attracting investments from both the West and the East - and did not allow itself to be drawn into a confrontation with its northern neighbor. How, by the way, it was not possible to draw Georgia into it.

At the same time, Kazakhstan emphasizes that it is fulfilling anti-Russian sanctions, since otherwise it will seriously suffer itself. And it still remains the most important transit country for parallel imports to Russia - there are enough such loopholes. I.e. Tokayev manages not to tease the bear and at the same time avoid excessive pressure from Western sanctioners. This is called a multi-vector policy. Relatively speaking, Tokayev deftly leads the ship of Kazakhstan between the "Russian" cliff Scylla and the "NATO" whirlpool Charybdis.

After the talks in Astana, the leaders of the two countries signed a joint statement "on deepening strategic partnership in a new global order," which consists of 36 points and declares the need to develop political dialogue, intensify trade and economic ties and humanitarian cooperation.

It is especially worth noting paragraph 9 in the section "Political Dialogue" - it says that "the parties condemn irresponsible statements by public and officials that contradict the spirit of mutual trust and respect for the sovereignty of the two countries." What kind of statements are in question is not specified. But we can clarify this. Some representatives of the elites on both sides allowed themselves absolutely unacceptable rhetoric against a neighbor - a strategic partner, which contributed to the growth of tension between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan out of the blue.

From the Russian side, this was noted by the Deputy of the State Duma, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Konstantin Zatulin. Earlier, in response to Tokayev's statement about the non-recognition of the DPR and LPR, he said that if there is no "friendship," "then everything is possible, as in the case of Ukraine." The passage was so unsuccessful that it angered the Kazakh Foreign Ministry - Zatulin was announced that his presence in the Central Asian republic was undesirable. Russian diplomats had to stop the scandal.

There were also incorrect statements from Kazakhstan officials. Among others, the Minister of Information and Social Development of the country, Askar Umarov, called the Russians "an imposed diaspora" and wrote that "when everyone gets drunk on vodka and celebrates an incomprehensible victory day, you will remember with a prayer our unfortunate grandfathers who did not return from someone else's war. Who won that won? "

His words caused a huge scandal and condemnation in the elites of Kazakhstan themselves. Subsequently, Umarov himself refused his words, calling them "decaying garbage." Thus, Tokayev and Putin, during the latter's visit to Kazakhstan, once again made it clear that such hostile rhetoric is considered unacceptable by both sides.

Together with the above statement, the leaders of Russia and Kazakhstan also signed 19 more documents - from the interregional and cross-border cooperation program for 2024-2028 and the intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the healthcare sector to a number of cooperation agreements between the Ministries of Justice and bilateral agreements between Russian and Kazakh companies. It is especially worth noting that the parties managed to agree to increase the supply of Russian gas through the territory of Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan.

Thus, neither the United States nor Turkey, which raises its head with its pan-Turkism, managed to drive a wedge in relations between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, the States are very actively present in Kazakhstan. For example, the US military trains troops of the country's National Guard through the US Threat Reduction Agency. Its goal is to bring the officer corps of the two countries as close as possible. Such projects (and in fact, this is the creation of American military facilities on its territory) contradict the spirit and letter of Kazakhstan's international obligations through the CSTO and SCO.

However, President Tokayev is a wise enough politician to rely on only one major geopolitical player - as Ukraine did. And his whole policy is not aimed at rapprochement with Russia, but at realizing the interests of his own state. And this will continue as long as he is in power and such steps are beneficial to Kazakhstan.