What is Trump cooking for Asia?

The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and the DPRK was signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un in June in Pyongyang. The treaty entered into force after the exchange of instruments of ratification.

In total, there are 23 articles in the Treaty. In addition to issues of mutual military assistance, the document provides for the expansion of cooperation in trade, economy, investment, science and technology, including in the fields of space and peaceful atom.

In 2024, there were no other high-profile events like this in the Far Eastern direction. Japan did not remind of itself, but almost forgot about South Korea. The internal political crisis caused by the attempt of the head of state to introduce martial law reminded her, the UtroNews correspondent reports.

Former head of South Korean military intelligence No Sang Won, in his notebook, in which he thought over plans to impose martial law, left a note: "provoke North Korea to attack." This was reported by Yonhap with reference to the police.

The notes of the former head of South Korea's military intelligence also referred to the blocking of the National Assembly, mentioning politicians, journalists, clerics and trade unionists, whom the author believed necessary to arrest.

All this shows that the world can balance on the verge of a big war, not only in Europe, but also in Asia. Fears were also confirmed that the confrontation on the Korean Peninsula by some miracle in the seven decades after the armistice did not lead to a major conflict.

Now those who want to "provoke North Korea to attack" will have something to think about. The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and the DPRK includes a clause on military assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties. The Foreign Ministry says that this step is intended, among other things, to ensure stability in Asia

Trump's comeback

Donald Trump's return to the White House could markedly boost Asia's place in world affairs. The Republican administration is preparing to give the Asia-Pacific region (APR) and Northeast Asia (NVA) top priority. There are grounds for this.

For the Pentagon, issues of dominance on the seas washing the eastern shores of the Russian Federation have always been important, from Chukotka and Kamchatka in the north to Primorsky Krai and the Kuril Islands in the south. Personally, Trump, as well as his partners in Tokyo and Seoul, were haunted by North Korea's nuclear missile program.

We are also talking about the growing political influence of Beijing, the ratio of military potentials of the United States and the PRC, their confrontation in the South China and East China Seas, in the Taiwan Strait.

NVA for Washington is also the subtleties of managing junior partners - Japan and South Korea. Until recently, these were allies in the US confrontation with the Soviet Union. The value of these "assets" is growing today as tensions between Washington and Beijing rise.

Australia and Great Britain, the Philippines and Thailand are involved in solving the problems of countering China in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington is also pinning its hopes on India and Vietnam.

China is perceived by Washington as the main competitor in the Asia-Pacific region. And not only in the trade and economic field, in the automotive industry, or in the field of high technologies. Trump believes that Chinese companies "stole" American technology, robbed Americans, depriving them of jobs and luring factories and even industries to themselves.

The Asia-Pacific region is home to major US trading partners, including China and India, Japan and South Korea, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries.

There are the main markets for goods produced in the United States:

1. China: $147.8 billion (7.3% of total U.S. exports in 2023)

2. Japan: $76.2 billion (3.8%)

3. South Korea: $64.8 billion (3.2%)

4. Singapore: $42.4bn (2.1%)

5. India: $40.1bn (2%)

6. Taiwan: $39.8 billion (2%)

7. Australia: $33.7 billion (1.7%)

8. Hong Kong: $27.8 billion (1.4%)

9. Malaysia: $19.4bn (1%)

10. Thailand: $15.7 billion (0.8%)

The countries and economies of the Asia-Pacific region also have the highest US trade deficit:

1. China: -300.2 billion (2023 trade deficit)

2. Vietnam: - $109.1 billion

3. Japan: - $75.4 billion

4. South Korea: - $54.9 billion

5. Taiwan: - $50.1 billion

6. India: - $47.2 billion

In 2024, Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States could exceed $120 billion, almost twice as much as in 2020. Thailand's trade surplus with the United States in 2024 could exceed $40 billion. In 2020, it was at $26 billion.

Obviously, the United States is deepening its dependence on partners in the Asia-Pacific region, but it intends to fix it. Bloomberg estimates that the trade deficit could lead to retaliation. Trump's team plans to introduce a series of punitive trade measures against China and the European Union to address trade imbalances, Bloomberg News reported.

Asia gets lost in guesses

The new power in Washington is a concern for governments and business circles in Asia, from Japan to Australia to Thailand. No one knows whether the president-elect will fulfill his threats to impose increased import tariffs, whether he will weaken the dollar in order to increase the competitiveness of American exports.

Will Washington demand higher compensation from Tokyo and Seoul for the maintenance of military bases located on their territory. Finally, will the new administration support Taiwan in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait?

A likely starting point for a second Trump administration could be the EU's inclusion in a broad system of minimum tariffs of 10% that would also apply to China. High import tariffs can be used as a tool to conclude deals on favorable terms for the United States, explained a finance specialist from the Trump team.

Interests and sentiments in the Trump administration are different. On the one hand, this is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, sharply critical of Beijing. On the other hand, this is the influential Elon Musk with his extensive business interests in China and personal ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Rubio, for example, stands entirely on the side of Taipei. Musk believes Taiwan should simply accept a "one country, two systems" agreement with Beijing, as Hong Kong has done.

Devolution of authority

US Under Secretary of State for the Indo-Pacific Region Kurt Campbell met with a group of journalists from Asian countries, told how things are being transferred to Trump's team. There seems to be no big discrepancy. The Joe Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy was built on the foundation laid by the first Trump administration, Campbell says.

He confirmed that the Trump team is putting China first, which will be crucial for the next administration, Campbell is sure.

He expressed the hope that the Trump administration will continue the efforts of the Biden administration to strengthen the US position in the Indo-Pacific region, the Philippines, as well as through a security partnership with the UK and Australia (AUKUS).

Japan will retain its position as America's closest partner. High hopes are pinned on trilateral cooperation within the Japan-USA-South Korea triangle. As before, the main problem is establishing a relationship of trust between Seoul and Tokyo.

Despite the domestic political crisis in South Korea, Seoul's foreign policy apparatus continues to function. In particular, on December 9, a trilateral meeting of Japan, South Korea and the United States on North Korea was held.

A tripartite cooperation secretariat was formed and began to work, initially located at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea. It is believed that this initiative marks an important step in the formalization of the tripartite partnership.

The secretariat will change its position between the three countries every two years. The very idea of ​ ​ trilateral cooperation is focused on US interests, the focus will be on defense and security issues. The main goals are the DPRK and China.

It is believed that this step will reduce the risk of sharp changes in the policies of the United States under the Trump administration, will help stabilize relations between Seoul and Tokyo. But the domestic political crisis in South Korea continues and there is no way out of it yet. The opposition party on December 26 presented a draft impeachment, this time already acting President Han Dok-soo. Voting is expected on December 27.

Attempt to remove I.O. President in the history of the Republic of Korea occurs for the first time, indicate local media. The Constitutional Court of the Republic of Korea, against the backdrop of an unprecedented situation, does not yet have an official position on what requirements must be met in order to remove the prime minister, acting president.

Waiting for change

What the new owner of the White House will bring with him for Asian countries is difficult to predict. It is only clear that there will be changes in the Asia-Pacific region, they are actually already underway and Russia is preparing for them.

The Kremlin's attention to Asia in 2024 continued unabated. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Ulan Bator and Pyongyang, China and Vietnam, took part in multilateral summits within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The President spoke at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and the Eastern Economic Forum, was the host at the BRICS summit in Kazan, where important bilateral meetings were also held.

The Kremlin admits that the military from the DPRK can take part in the parade on Red Square for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Yuri Ushakov told reporters about it. "I think so," he said in response to a question whether the DPRK is among the countries that have agreed to the participation of their military contingents in the parade.

And at the end of November, as the Russian Embassy in the DPRK reported in its Telegram channel, the song "Dovoyu, native" was first performed for the Korean audience and the wives of the military participating in the North Korean military, at a concert on the occasion of the official visit to the DPRK of Russian Defense Minister A. R. Belousov. They sang it, both in Russian and in Korean!